Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DOLORES-21 in Mexico from 18 Jun 2021 09:00 UTC to 15:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DOLORES-21

in Mexico

18 Jun 2021 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLORES-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	111 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (20 Jun 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 19 Jun 2021 12:00 - 20 Jun 2021 00:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	111 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	18 Jun 2021 09:00	102	1.4 million	No people	Mexico
	2	18 Jun 2021 15:00	111	2 million	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jun 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.4, -101.6
2	18 Jun 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.7, -102.5
2	19 Jun 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.3, -103.3
2	19 Jun 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	390000 people	16.8, -104.3
2	20 Jun 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.8 million people	19.2, -105	Mexico
2	20 Jun 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	520000 people	22.1, -105.6	Mexico
2	21 Jun 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	24.4, -106.2	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Colima	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Durango	Mexico
Sinaloa	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Talpa de Allende	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Compostela	Nayarit	Mexico	City	16000 people
Tepic	Nayarit	Mexico	Major city	280000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Tuxpan	Nayarit	Mexico	City	23000 people
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	15000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Playa de Oro International	ZLO	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Autlan		884				0
La Gloria		34				0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International	PVR	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
El Llano		12				0
Tepic	TPQ	960	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
San Blas		3				0
Acaponeta		84				0
Teacapan		6				0
Rancho los Cabras		3				0
General Rafael Buelna International	MZT	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Manzanillo	MXZLO	Mexico
Chamela		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Ipala		Mexico
Puerto Vallarta	MXPVR	Mexico
San Blas	MXSBS	Mexico

Dams

Dam Name	River	Year
Trigomil	Ayuquila	1993
Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976
Corrinchis	Mascota	1977

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in San Blas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Jun 2021 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 18 Jun 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Jun 2021 10:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.5
	20 Jun 2021 13:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.4
	20 Jun 2021 11:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.4
	20 Jun 2021 13:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	20 Jun 2021 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	20 Jun 2021 12:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	20 Jun 2021 14:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	20 Jun 2021 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 02:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 01:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 00:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 15:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 07:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 07:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 07:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 08:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	20 Jun 2021 06:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 09:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 16:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 03:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 02:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 06:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 02:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 00:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 22:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Jun 2021 23:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 06:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 17:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	20 Jun 2021 17:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.